Título:	The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
Autor(es):	Prata, David Nadler Rodrigues, Waldecy Bermejo, Paulo Henrique de Souza Moreira, Marina Figueiredo Camargo, Wainesten Lisboa, Marcelo Reis, Geovane Rossone Araújo, Humberto Xavier de
Assunto:	Temperatura e umidade tropicais Covid-19 Modelo aditivo generalizado
Data de publicação:	5-Fev-2021
Editora:	PeerJ
Referência:	Prata, David et al. The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19. PeerJ, v. 9, e10655, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655. Disponível em: https://peerj.com/articles/10655/. Acesso em: 10 ago. 2021.
Abstract:	This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, finds stability by striking a certain balance between relative humidity and temperature, which indicates the possibility of surface contact transmission. The question remains whether seasonal changes associated with climatic fluctuations might actively influence virus survival. Correlations between climatic variables and infectivity rates of SARS-CoV-2 were applied by the use of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and the Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing LOESS nonparametric model. Tropical climates allow for more frequent outdoor human interaction, making such areas ideal for studies on the natural transmission of the virus. Outcomes revealed an inverse relationship between subtropical and tropical climates for the spread of the novel coronavirus and temperature, suggesting a sensitivity behavior to climates zones. Each 1 °C rise of the daily temperature mean correlated with a −11.76% (t = −5.71, p < 0.0001) decrease and a 5.66% (t = 5.68, p < 0.0001) increase in the incidence of COVID-19 for subtropical and tropical climates, respectively.
Unidade Acadêmica:	Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Gestão de Políticas Públicas (FACE) Departamento de Administração (FACE ADM)
Licença:	Copyright 2021 Prata et al. Distributed under Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0.
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655
Aparece nas coleções:	Artigos publicados em periódicos e afins UnB - Covid-19

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