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Title: Pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil : projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada
Other Titles: COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil : Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Projections and the ensuing evolution
Authors: Stein, Caroline
Cousin, Ewerton
Malta, Deborah Carvalho
Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho
Machado, Ísis Eloah
Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales
Melo, Ana Paula Souto
França, Elisabeth
Ishitani, Lenice
Mendes, Mariana Santos Felisbino
Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo
Sousa, Tatiane Moraes de
Marinho, Fatima
Schmidt, Maria Inês
Gallagher, John
Naghavi, Mohsen
Duncan, Bruce B.
metadata.dc.identifier.orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4777-1630
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3455-8865
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8214-5734
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4678-2074
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7589-107X
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9955-0824
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6984-0233
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7165-4736
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5321-5708
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2829-5798
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4359-465X
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3287-9163
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6209-1513
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7491-2630
Assunto:: Covid-19 - Brasil
Doenças transmissíveis
Epidemias
Previsão
Issue Date: 17-Aug-2020
Citation: STEIN, Caroline et al. Pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada. SciELO Preprints, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1110. Disponível em: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/1110. Acesso em: 20 ago. 2020. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
STEIN, Caroline et al. COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Projections and the ensuing evolution. SciELO Preprints, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1110. Disponível em: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/1110. Acesso em: 20 ago. 2020.
Abstract: Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do IHME para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados e discutir acurácia e implicações em diferentes cenários. Métodos: Descrevemos e estimamos a acurácia das previsões para o Brasil, comparando-as com as mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 192.511 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1 de dezembro de 2020. O relaxamento continuado do isolamento físico obrigatório, apesar do aumento continuado dos óbitos, pode causar >63.000 mortes adicionais; o rápido aumento no uso de máscara pode reduzir o número para ~25.000. Vários estados poderão ter que reinstituir restrições. As diferenças entre as projeções do IHME até 6 semanas e as mortes registradas variaram de -11% a 48% para o Brasil. Conclusões: As projeções de curto a médio prazo do IHME fornecem informações válidas para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e a sociedade em geral. Elas sugerem curso prolongado, grande mortalidade e prováveis novas restrições.
Abstract: Objective: To describe IHME projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states and discuss their accuracy and implications for different scenarios. Methods: We describe and estimate the accuracy of these predictions for Brazil by comparing them with the ensuing reported cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 192,511 deaths by December 1, 2020. Continued relaxation of mandated physical isolation despite rising deaths could cause >63,000 additional deaths, while rapid increase in maskuse could reduce the projected death toll by ~25,000. Several states will likely be obliged to reinstitute mandated restrictions. Differences between IHME projections up to 6 weeks and recorded deaths ranged from -11% to 48% for Brazil.Conclusion: IHME short to medium term projections of deaths provide sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. They suggest a prolonged pandemic course, with major mortality and probable necessity of renewed restrictions.
metadata.dc.description.unidade: Instituto de Ciências Exatas (IE)
Departamento de Estatística (IE EST)
Licença:: (CC BY) - Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1110
Appears in Collections:Artigos publicados em periódicos e afins
UnB - Covid-19

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