Título:	Modeling the impacts of soil management on avoided deforestation and REDD+ payments in the Brazilian Amazon : a systems approach
Autor(es):	Brasil, Alexandre Anders Angelo, Humberto Almeida, Alexandre Nascimento de Matricardi, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Chaves, Henrique Marinho Leite Paula, Maristela Franchetti de
ORCID:	https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4280-0498 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9113-0729 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5323-6100
Afiliação do autor:	Universidade de Brasília, Forestry Department Universidade de Brasília, Forestry Department Universidade de Brasília, Planaltina Campus Universidade de Brasília, Forestry Department Universidade de Brasília, Forestry Department Universidade Estadual do Centro-Oeste, Administration Department
Assunto:	Pensamento sistémico Solos - manejo Desmatamento - Amazônia Emissões de gases de efeito estufa
Data de publicação:	7-Ago-2023
Editora:	MDPI
Referência:	BRASIL, Alexandre Anders et al. Modeling the impacts of soil management on avoided deforestation and REDD+ payments in the Brazilian Amazon : a systems approach. Sustainability, [S. l.], v. 15, n. 15, 12099, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su151512099. Disponível em: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/15/12099.
Abstract:	An Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was employed to develop a Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) and a quantitative model to investigate the changes in land use within the Brazil ian Amazon. The process began by creating a theoretical NPF using a ‘systems thinking’ approach. Subsequently, a ‘system dynamic model’ was built based on an extensive review of the literature and on multiple quantitative datasets to simulate the impacts of the NPF, specifically focusing on the conversion of forests into open land for ranching and the implementation of soil management practices as a macro-level policy aimed at preserving soil quality and ranching yields. Various fallow scenarios were tested to simulate their effects on deforestation patterns. The results indicate that implementing fallow practices as a policy measure could reduce deforestation rates while simultane ously ensuring sustainable long-term agricultural productivity, thus diminishing the necessity to clear new forest land. Moreover, when combined with payments for avoided deforestation, such as REDD+ carbon offsets, the opportunity costs associated with ranching land can be utilized to compensate for the loss of gross income resulting from the policy. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the significance of different model variables, revealing that lower cattle prices require resources for REDD+ payments, and vice-versa. The findings indicate that, at the macro level, payments between USD 2.5 and USD 5.0 per MgC ha−1 have the potential to compensate the foregone cattle production from not converting forest into ranching land. This study demonstrates that employing an IAM with a systems approach facilitates the participation of various stakeholders, including farmers and landowners, in policy discussions. It also enables the establishment of effective land use and management policies that mitigate deforestation and soil degradation, making it a robust initiative to address environmental, climate change, and economic sustainability issues.
Unidade Acadêmica:	Faculdade de Tecnologia (FT) Departamento de Engenharia Florestal (FT EFL) Faculdade UnB Planaltina (FUP)
Licença:	(CC BY) Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/)
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.3390/su151512099
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